context("Tests for ADAM") #### Basic ETS stuff #### # Basic ADAM selection testModel <- adam(BJsales, "ZZZ") test_that("ADAM ETS(ZZZ) selection on BJsales", { expect_match(errorType(testModel), "A") }) # Basic ADAM selection on 2568 testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "ZZZ") test_that("ADAM ETS(ZZZ) selection on AirPassengers", { expect_match(errorType(testModel), "M") }) # Full ADAM selection test_that("ADAM ETS(FFF) selection on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "FFF") expect_match(modelType(testModel), "M") }) # ADAM with specified pool test_that("ADAM selection with a pool on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, c("AAA","ANN","MAN","MAM")) expect_match(modelType(testModel), "MAN") }) # ADAM forecasts with simulated interval test_that("ADAM forecast with simulated interval", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel,h=8,interval="sim",level=c(0.9,0.95)) expect_equal(ncol(testForecast$lower), 2) }) # ADAM combination test_that("ADAM ETS(CCC) on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "CCC") expect_match(modelType(testModel), "CCN") }) # ADAM forecasts with approximated interval test_that("ADAM forecast with simulated interval", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel,h=8,interval="app",level=c(0.9,0.95),side="upper") expect_equal(ncol(testForecast$lower), 2) }) #### Advanced losses for ADAM #### # ADAM with GN distribution test_that("ADAM ETS(MAN) with Generalised Normal on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "MAN", distribution="dgnorm") expect_match(testModel$distribution, "dgnorm") }) # ADAM with MSE test_that("ADAM ETS(MAN) with MSE on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "MAN", loss="MSE") expect_match(testModel$loss, "MSE") }) # ADAM with MSEh test_that("ADAM ETS(MAN) with MSE on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "MAN", loss="MSEh",h=12) expect_match(testModel$loss, "MSEh") }) # ADAM with GTMSE testModel <- adam(BJsales, "MAN", loss="GTMSE",h=12) test_that("ADAM ETS(MAN) with GTMSE on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() expect_match(testModel$loss, "GTMSE") }) # ADAM with GPL test_that("ADAM ETS(MAN) with GPL on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "MAN", loss="GPL",h=12) expect_match(testModel$loss, "GPL") }) # ADAM with LASSO test_that("ADAM ETS(MAN) with LASSO on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "MAN", loss="LASSO", lambda=0.5) expect_match(testModel$loss, "LASSO") }) # ADAM with custom loss function test_that("ADAM ETS(AAN) with custom loss on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() loss <- function(actual, fitted, B){ return(sum(abs(actual-fitted)^3)) } testModel <- adam(BJsales, "AAN", loss=loss) expect_match(testModel$loss, "custom") }) #### ETS + occurrence model #### # Generate intermittent data x <- sim.oes("MNN", 120, frequency=12, occurrence="general", persistence=0.01, initial=2, initialB=1) x <- sim.es("MNN", 120, frequency=12, probability=x$probability, persistence=0.1) # iETS(M,N,N)_G test_that("ADAM iETS(MNN) with general occurrence", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(x$data, "MNN", occurrence="general") expect_match(testModel$occurrence$occurrence, "general") }) # iETS(M,M,M)_A test_that("ADAM iETS(MMM) with direct occurrence", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(x$data, "MMM", occurrence="direct") expect_match(errorType(testModel), "M") }) # iETS(M,M,N)_A test_that("ADAM iETS(MMN) with auto occurrence", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(x$data, "MMN", occurrence="auto") expect_match(errorType(testModel), "M") }) # iETS(Z,Z,N)_A test_that("ADAM iETS(MMN) with auto occurrence", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(x$data, "ZZN", occurrence="auto") expect_true(is.occurrence(testModel$occurrence)) }) # Forecasts from the model test_that("Froecast from ADAM iETS(ZZZ)", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel, h=18, interval="semi") expect_true(is.adam(testForecast$model)) }) #### ETS with several seasonalities #### # Double seasonality on AirPassengers test_that("ADAM ETS(YYY) with double seasonality on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "YYY", lags=c(1,3,12), h=18) expect_identical(testModel$lags, c(1,3,12)) }) # Double seasonality on AirPassengers test_that("ADAM ETS(FFF) + backcasting with double seasonality on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "FFF", lags=c(1,3,12), h=18, initial="backcasting") expect_identical(testModel$lags, c(1,3,12)) }) # Double seasonality on AirPassengers test_that("ADAM ETS(CCC) with double seasonality on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "CCC", lags=c(1,3,12), h=18) expect_identical(testModel$models[[1]]$lags, c(1,3,12)) }) #### ETSX / Regression + formula #### # ETSX on AirPassengers xreg <- data.frame(y=AirPassengers, x=factor(temporaldummy(AirPassengers,factors=TRUE))) test_that("ADAM ETSX(MMN) on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMN", h=18, holdout=TRUE) expect_false(ncol(testModel$data)==1) }) # ETSX selection on AirPassengers test_that("ADAM ETSX(ZZZ) + xreg selection on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "ZZZ", h=18, holdout=TRUE, regressors="select") expect_equal(testModel$regressors,"use") }) # ETSX adaption on AirPassengers test_that("ADAM ETSX(MMN) + xreg adapt on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMN", h=18, holdout=TRUE, regressors="adapt") expect_match(testModel$regressors, "adapt") }) # Forecast from ETSX with formula test_that("Forecast for ADAM adaptive regression on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel, h=18, newxreg=tail(xreg, 18), interval="simulated") expect_equal(testForecast$level, 0.95) }) # ETSX with formula test_that("ADAM ETSX(MMN) + xreg formula on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMN", h=18, holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x, distribution="dnorm") expect_match(testModel$regressors, "use") }) # Forecast from ETSX with formula test_that("Forecast for ADAM ETSX(MMN) + xreg formula on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel, h=18, newxreg=tail(xreg, 18), interval="nonp") expect_equal(testForecast$level, 0.95) }) # Pure regression test_that("ADAM regression (ALM) on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "NNN", h=18, holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x+trend, distribution="dlnorm") expect_equal(modelType(testModel),"NNN") }) #### ETS + ARIMA / ARIMA + ARIMAX #### ### ETS + ARIMA # ETS(ANN) + ARIMA(0,2,2) test_that("ADAM ETS(ANN) + ARIMA(0,2,2) on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "ANN", orders=c(0,2,2)) expect_match(modelType(testModel), "ANN") }) # ETS(ANN) + ARIMA(0,2,2) backcasting test_that("ADAM ETS(ANN) + ARIMA(0,2,2) with backcasting on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "ANN", orders=c(1,1,2), initial="backcasting") expect_match(modelType(testModel), "ANN") }) # ETS(ZZZ) + ARIMA(0,2,2) test_that("ADAM ETS(ZZZ) + ARIMA(0,2,2) with logN on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "ZZZ", orders=c(2,0,2), distribution="dlnorm") expect_match(testModel$distribution, "dlnorm") }) # ETS(ZZZ) + SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,1)[12] test_that("ADAM ETS(ZZZ) + SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,1)[12] with logS on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "ZZZ", orders=list(ar=c(2,2),i=c(1,1), ma=c(2,1)), distribution="ds") expect_match(testModel$distribution, "ds") }) # Forecast from ETS(ZZZ) + SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,1)[12] test_that("Forecast of ADAM ETS(ZZZ) + SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,1)[12] with S", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel, h=18, interval="prediction", side="upper") expect_match(testForecast$side, "upper") }) ### ARIMA / ARIMAX # Pure SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,1)[12], Normal test_that("ADAM SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,2)[12] with Logistic on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "NNN", orders=list(ar=c(2,2),i=c(1,1), ma=c(2,2)), distribution="dgnorm") expect_match(testModel$distribution, "dgnorm") }) # Forecast from SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,2)[12] test_that("Forecast of ADAM SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,2)[12]", { skip_on_cran() testForecast <- forecast(testModel, h=18, interval="approximate", side="lower") expect_match(testForecast$side, "lower") }) # ARIMAX test_that("ADAM SARIMAX on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "NNN", h=18, orders=list(ar=c(2,0),i=c(1,0), ma=c(2,1)), holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x) expect_match(testModel$distribution, "dnorm") }) # ARIMAX with dynamic xreg test_that("ADAM SARIMAX with dynamic xreg on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "NNN", h=18, orders=list(ar=c(2,0),i=c(1,0), ma=c(2,1)), holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x, regressors="adapt") expect_equal(length(testModel$persistence), 15) }) #### Provided initial / persistence / phi / arma / B / reuse the model #### ### Initials # ETS(MMM) with provided level test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM) with provided level on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", initial=list(level=5000)) expect_false(testModel$initialEstimated["level"]) }) # ETS(MMM) with provided trend test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM) with provided trend on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", initial=list(trend=1)) expect_false(testModel$initialEstimated["trend"]) }) # ETS(MMM) with provided seasonal test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM) with provided seasonal components on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", initial=list(seasonal=AirPassengers[1:12])) expect_false(testModel$initialEstimated["seasonal"]) }) # ETSX(MMN) with provided xreg initials test_that("ADAM ETSX(MMN) with provided xreg initials on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMN", h=18, holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x, initial=list(xreg=c(-0.35,-.34,.27,-.46,.07,-0.28,-0.24,0.05,-0.28,-0.34,-0.01))) expect_false(testModel$initialEstimated["xreg"]) }) # ETS(ANN) + ARIMA(0,2,2) with provided initials for ARIMA test_that("ADAM ETS(ANN) + ARIMA(0,2,2) with initials for ARIMA on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(BJsales, "ANN", orders=c(0,2,2), initial=list(arima=BJsales[1:2])) expect_false(testModel$initialEstimated["arima"]) }) # All provided initials test_that("ADAM ETSX(MMM)+ARIMA(0,0,2) with provided initials on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMM", formula=y~x, orders=c(0,0,2), lags=c(1,12)) testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMM", formula=y~x, orders=c(0,0,2), lags=c(1,12), initial=testModel$initial) expect_true(all(!testModel$initialEstimated)) }) ### Persistence # ETS(MMM) with provided alpha test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM) with provided alpha on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", persistence=list(alpha=0.1)) expect_equivalent(testModel$persistence["alpha"],0.1) }) # ETS(MMM) with provided beta test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM) with provided beta on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", persistence=list(beta=0.1)) expect_equivalent(testModel$persistence["beta"],0.1) }) # ETS(MMM) with provided gamma test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM) with provided gamma on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", persistence=list(gamma=0.1)) expect_equivalent(testModel$persistence["gamma"],0.1) }) # ETS(MMN) with provided deltas test_that("ADAM ETS(MMN) with provided deltas on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "MMN", formula=y~x, persistence=list(delta=0.01), regressors="adapt") expect_equivalent(testModel$persistence[substr(names(testModel$persistence),1,5)=="delta"],rep(0.01,12)) }) ### Phi # ETS(MMdM) with provided phi test_that("ADAM ETS(MMdM) with provided phi on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMdM", phi=0.99) expect_equivalent(testModel$phi,0.99) }) ### arma parameters # Provided AR parameters test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM)+ARIMA(2,0,2) with provided AR on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", orders=c(2,0,2), arma=list(ar=c(0.2,0.3))) expect_equivalent(testModel$arma$ar,c(0.2,0.3)) }) # Provided MA parameters test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM)+ARIMA(2,0,2) with provided MA on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", orders=c(2,0,2), arma=list(ma=c(-0.2,-0.4))) expect_equivalent(testModel$arma$ma,c(-0.2,-0.4)) }) # Provided ARMA parameters test_that("ADAM ETS(MMM)+ARIMA(2,0,2) with provided ARMA on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMM", orders=c(2,0,2), arma=list(ar=c(0.2,0.3), ma=c(-0.2,-0.4))) expect_equivalent(testModel$arma$ar,c(0.2,0.3)) expect_equivalent(testModel$arma$ma,c(-0.2,-0.4)) }) ### B # Provided starting parameters test_that("ADAM ARIMA(2,0,2) with provided B on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "NNN", orders=c(2,0,2)) testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "NNN", orders=c(2,0,2), B=testModel$B) expect_equivalent(testModel$model,"ARIMA(2,0,2)") }) ### Model reused # Reuse ETS test_that("Reuse ADAM ETS(MMdM) on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "MMdM") testModelNew <- adam(AirPassengers, testModel) expect_equal(testModel$model,testModelNew$model) expect_equal(nparam(testModelNew),1) }) # Reuse ARIMA test_that("Reuse ADAM SARIMA(2,1,2)(0,0,1)[12] on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(AirPassengers, "NNN", h=18, orders=list(ar=c(2,0),i=c(1,0), ma=c(2,1)), holdout=TRUE) testModelNew <- adam(AirPassengers, testModel) expect_equal(testModel$model,testModelNew$model) expect_equal(nparam(testModelNew),1) }) # Reuse ARIMAX test_that("Reuse ADAM SARIMAX(2,1,2)(0,0,1)[12] with dynamic xreg on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "NNN", h=18, orders=list(ar=c(2,0),i=c(1,0), ma=c(2,1)), holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x, regressors="adapt") testModelNew <- adam(xreg, testModel) expect_equal(testModel$persistence,testModelNew$persistence) expect_equal(nparam(testModelNew),1) }) # Reuse ETSX + ARIMA test_that("Reuse ADAM ETSX(ANN)+SARIMA(2,1,2)(0,0,1)[12] on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- adam(xreg, "ANN", h=18, orders=list(ar=c(2,0),i=c(1,0), ma=c(2,1)), holdout=TRUE, formula=y~x) testModelNew <- adam(xreg, testModel) expect_equal(testModel$persistence,testModelNew$persistence) expect_equal(nparam(testModelNew),1) }) #### auto.adam #### # Select the best distribution for ETS(ZZZ) on 2568 test_that("Best auto.adam on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- auto.adam(AirPassengers, "ZZZ") expect_match(testModel$loss, "likelihood") }) # Outliers detection for ETS on series BJsales of M1 in parallel test_that("Detect outliers for ETS(ZZZ) on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- auto.adam(BJsales, "ZZZ", outliers="use") expect_match(testModel$loss, "likelihood") }) # Best ARIMA on the 2568 test_that("Best auto.adam ARIMA on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- auto.adam(AirPassengers, "NNN", orders=list(ar=c(3,2),i=c(2,1),ma=c(3,2),select=TRUE)) expect_match(testModel$loss, "likelihood") }) # Outliers detection for ARIMA on series BJsales of M1 in parallel test_that("Detect outliers for ARIMA on BJsales", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- auto.adam(BJsales, "NNN", orders=list(ar=c(3,2),i=c(2,1),ma=c(3,2),select=TRUE), outliers="use") expect_match(modelType(testModel),"NNN") }) # Best ETS+ARIMA+Regression on the 2568 # Summary of the best model test_that("Best auto.adam ETS+ARIMA+Regression on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- auto.adam(xreg, "ZZZ", orders=list(ar=c(3,2),i=c(2,1),ma=c(3,2),select=TRUE), lags=c(1,12), regressors="select", initial="back") testSummary <- summary(testModel) expect_match(testSummary$loss, "likelihood") }) # Best ETS+ARIMA+Regression on the 2568 test_that("Best auto.adam ETS+ARIMA+Regression+outliers on AirPassengers", { skip_on_cran() testModel <- auto.adam(xreg, "ZZZ", orders=list(ar=c(3,2),i=c(2,1),ma=c(3,2),select=TRUE), outliers="use", regressors="use", initial="back") expect_match(testModel$loss, "likelihood") })