TRIM 3.70 : TRend analysis and Indices for Monitoring data STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Date/Time: 3-10-2016 11:55:22 Title : skylark-4f Comment: Now with automatic selection of changepoints The following 6 variables have been read from file: Z:\Users\patrick\Work\CBS\TRIM\wine\skylark_wt.dat 1. Site number of values: 55 2. Time number of values: 8 3. Count missing = 999 4. weight 5. HABITAT number of values: 2 6. COV2 number of values: 4 Number of observed zero counts 0 Number of observed positive counts 202 Total number of observed counts 202 Number of missing counts 238 Total number of counts 440 Total count 2536.0 Sites containing more than 10% of the total count Site Number Observed Total % 3 431.0 17.0 37 266.0 10.5 40 624.0 24.6 Time Point Averages Weighted Weighted TimePoint Observations Average Index Average Index 1 25 8.52 1.00 30.12 1.00 2 20 8.10 0.95 27.00 0.90 3 30 10.90 1.28 24.10 0.80 4 30 11.27 1.32 23.87 0.79 5 28 12.75 1.50 23.36 0.78 6 29 14.66 1.72 36.38 1.21 7 22 17.00 2.00 31.73 1.05 8 18 18.89 2.22 35.39 1.17 RESULTS FOR MODEL: Linear Trend -------------------------------- Changes in Slope at Timepoints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 WEIGHTING = On ESTIMATION METHOD = Generalised Estimating Equations Estimated Overdispersion = 1.367 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.302 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 191.40, df 140, p 0.0000 Likelihood Ratio 194.80, df 140, p 0.0000 AIC (up to a constant) -85.20 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 9.22 1 0.0024 2 6.85 1 0.0089 3 1.44 1 0.2298 4 1.03 1 0.3107 5 0.00 1 0.9735 6 0.04 1 0.8358 7 0.03 1 0.8519 STEPWISE SELECTION OF CHANGEPOINTS Deleted ChangePoint 5 Significance to delete 0.9735 Deleted ChangePoint 7 Significance to delete 0.8511 Deleted ChangePoint 6 Significance to delete 0.5817 Deleted ChangePoint 4 Significance to delete 0.2462 Deleted ChangePoint 3 Significance to delete 0.6041 Remaining Changepoints at time: 1 2 Total time used: 7.43 seconds Estimated Overdispersion = 1.334 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.305 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 193.36, df 145, p 0.0000 Likelihood Ratio 191.81, df 145, p 0.0000 AIC (up to a constant) -98.19 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 11.08 1 0.0009 2 14.90 1 0.0001 PARAMETER ESTIMATES Slope for Time Intervals from upto Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 1 2 -0.3029 0.0910 0.7387 0.0672 2 8 0.0757 0.0157 1.0787 0.0169 Time INDICES Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1 1 2 0.7387 0.0672 0.7567 0.0743 3 0.7968 0.0687 0.7971 0.0797 4 0.8595 0.0723 0.8100 0.0816 5 0.9272 0.0787 0.8038 0.0844 6 1.0001 0.0885 0.9194 0.0963 7 1.0788 0.1020 0.9631 0.1027 8 1.1637 0.1195 0.9939 0.1149 TIME TOTALS Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1424 137 1536 145 2 1052 87 1162 100 3 1134 84 1224 101 4 1224 83 1244 103 5 1320 86 1234 108 6 1424 95 1412 118 7 1536 109 1479 126 8 1657 130 1526 144 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL (with intercept) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0442 0.0134 1.0452 0.0140 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED (with intercept, recommended) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0188 0.0150 1.0190 0.0152 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL (through base time point) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0000 0.0177 1.0000 0.0177 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED (through base time point) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. -0.0209 0.0186 0.9793 0.0182