TRIM 3.70 : TRend analysis and Indices for Monitoring data STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Date/Time: 3-10-2016 11:54:14 Title : skylark-4c Comment: Now with overdispersion The following 6 variables have been read from file: Z:\Users\patrick\Work\CBS\TRIM\wine\skylark_wt.dat 1. Site number of values: 55 2. Time number of values: 8 3. Count missing = 999 4. weight 5. HABITAT number of values: 2 6. COV2 number of values: 4 Number of observed zero counts 0 Number of observed positive counts 202 Total number of observed counts 202 Number of missing counts 238 Total number of counts 440 Total count 2536.0 Sites containing more than 10% of the total count Site Number Observed Total % 3 431.0 17.0 37 266.0 10.5 40 624.0 24.6 Time Point Averages Weighted Weighted TimePoint Observations Average Index Average Index 1 25 8.52 1.00 30.12 1.00 2 20 8.10 0.95 27.00 0.90 3 30 10.90 1.28 24.10 0.80 4 30 11.27 1.32 23.87 0.79 5 28 12.75 1.50 23.36 0.78 6 29 14.66 1.72 36.38 1.21 7 22 17.00 2.00 31.73 1.05 8 18 18.89 2.22 35.39 1.17 RESULTS FOR MODEL: Linear Trend -------------------------------- Changes in Slope at Timepoints 1 2 WEIGHTING = On ESTIMATION METHOD = Generalised Estimating Equations Total time used: 0.72 seconds Estimated Overdispersion = 1.313 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 190.45, df 145, p 0.0000 Likelihood Ratio 186.75, df 145, p 0.0000 AIC (up to a constant) -103.25 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 10.23 1 0.0014 2 14.18 1 0.0002 PARAMETER ESTIMATES Slope for Time Intervals from upto Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 1 2 -0.3108 0.0972 0.7329 0.0712 2 8 0.0798 0.0138 1.0831 0.0149 Time INDICES Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1 1 2 0.7329 0.0712 0.7530 0.0827 3 0.7938 0.0732 0.7947 0.0847 4 0.8597 0.0766 0.8109 0.0857 5 0.9311 0.0821 0.8059 0.0874 6 1.0084 0.0900 0.9241 0.0985 7 1.0922 0.1010 0.9706 0.1029 8 1.1829 0.1154 1.0027 0.1127 TIME TOTALS Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1424 136 1533 146 2 1044 78 1154 95 3 1130 77 1218 98 4 1224 77 1243 101 5 1326 80 1235 106 6 1436 88 1417 116 7 1556 101 1488 122 8 1685 120 1537 139 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL (with intercept) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0472 0.0118 1.0484 0.0123 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED (with intercept, recommended) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0206 0.0131 1.0209 0.0133 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL (through base time point) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0017 0.0179 1.0017 0.0179 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED (through base time point) Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. -0.0199 0.0187 0.9803 0.0183