TRIM 3.61 : TRend analysis and Indices for Monitoring data STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Date/Time: 12-9-2016 11:41:51 Title : skylark-3: The following 5 variables have been read from file: Z:\Users\patrick\Work\CBS\TRIM\wine\skylark.dat 1. Site number of values: 55 2. Time number of values: 8 3. Count missing = 999 4. HABITAT number of values: 2 5. COV2 number of values: 4 Number of sites without positive counts (removed) 0 Number of observed zero counts 0 Number of observed positive counts 202 Total number of observed counts 202 Number of missing counts 238 Total number of counts 440 Total count 2536.0 Sites containing more than 10% of the total count Site Number Observed Total % 3 431.0 17.0 37 266.0 10.5 40 624.0 24.6 Time Point Averages TimePoint Observations Average Index 1 25 8.52 1.00 2 20 8.10 0.95 3 30 10.90 1.28 4 30 11.27 1.32 5 28 12.75 1.50 6 29 14.66 1.72 7 22 17.00 2.00 8 18 18.89 2.22 RESULTS FOR MODEL: Linear Trend -------------------------------- Effects of covariate(s) HABITAT Changes in Slope at Timepoints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ESTIMATION METHOD = Generalised Estimating Equations Estimated Overdispersion = 1.162 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.227 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 154.50, df 133, p 0.0979 Likelihood Ratio 159.64, df 133, p 0.0575 AIC (up to a constant) -106.36 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF COVARIATES Covariate Wald-Test df p HABITAT 21.55 7 0.0030 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 10.27 2 0.0059 2 9.18 2 0.0102 3 3.08 2 0.2143 4 1.54 2 0.4637 5 1.64 2 0.4413 6 0.89 2 0.6419 7 0.01 2 0.9927 STEPWISE SELECTION OF CHANGEPOINTS Deleted ChangePoint 7 Significance to delete 0.9927 Deleted ChangePoint 6 Significance to delete 0.5368 Deleted ChangePoint 5 Significance to delete 0.6867 Deleted ChangePoint 4 Significance to delete 0.4639 Deleted ChangePoint 3 Significance to delete 0.3822 Remaining Changepoints at time: 1 2 Total time used: 10.73 seconds Estimated Overdispersion = 1.126 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.228 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 161.09, df 143, p 0.1431 Likelihood Ratio 160.76, df 143, p 0.1471 AIC (up to a constant) -125.24 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF COVARIATES Covariate Wald-Test df p HABITAT 18.51 2 0.0001 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 10.99 2 0.0041 2 14.65 2 0.0007 PARAMETER ESTIMATES Effects of Covariates on Slope for Time Intervals from upto 1 2 Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. Constant -0.2691 0.1823 0.7641 0.1393 Covariate 1 ------------ Category 2 -0.0204 0.2068 0.9798 0.2026 from upto 2 8 Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. Constant -0.0776 0.0411 0.9254 0.0380 Covariate 1 ------------ Category 2 0.1749 0.0437 1.1911 0.0521 Time INDICES Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1 1 2 0.7531 0.0655 0.7373 0.0666 3 0.7916 0.0648 0.8304 0.0729 4 0.8369 0.0670 0.8179 0.0731 5 0.8895 0.0720 0.8859 0.0798 6 0.9500 0.0800 0.9628 0.0881 7 1.0189 0.0910 1.0269 0.0964 8 1.0969 0.1053 1.1098 0.1088 TIME TOTALS Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 532 43 530 43 2 401 24 391 26 3 421 20 440 24 4 446 16 433 23 5 474 15 470 23 6 506 17 510 24 7 542 22 544 27 8 584 29 588 32 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL: Moderate increase (p<0.05) * Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0329 0.0127 1.0335 0.0131 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED+(recommended): Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0346 0.0127 1.0352 0.0132