TRIM 3.61 : TRend analysis and Indices for Monitoring data STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Date/Time: 25-8-2016 17:07:14 Title : skylark-1f The following 5 variables have been read from file: Z:\Users\patrick\Work\CBS\TRIM\wine\skylark.dat 1. Site number of values: 55 2. Time number of values: 8 3. Count missing = 999 4. HABITAT number of values: 2 5. COV2 number of values: 4 Number of sites without positive counts (removed) 0 Number of observed zero counts 0 Number of observed positive counts 202 Total number of observed counts 202 Number of missing counts 238 Total number of counts 440 Total count 2536.0 Sites containing more than 10% of the total count Site Number Observed Total % 3 431.0 17.0 37 266.0 10.5 40 624.0 24.6 Time Point Averages TimePoint Observations Average Index 1 25 8.52 1.00 2 20 8.10 0.95 3 30 10.90 1.28 4 30 11.27 1.32 5 28 12.75 1.50 6 29 14.66 1.72 7 22 17.00 2.00 8 18 18.89 2.22 RESULTS FOR MODEL: Linear Trend -------------------------------- Changes in Slope at Timepoints 1 2 ESTIMATION METHOD = Generalised Estimating Equations Total time used: 0.96 seconds Estimated Overdispersion = 1.334 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.305 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 193.36, df 145, p 0.0045 Likelihood Ratio 191.81, df 145, p 0.0056 AIC (up to a constant) -98.19 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 11.08 1 0.0009 2 14.90 1 0.0001 PARAMETER ESTIMATES Slope for Time Intervals from upto Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 1 2 -0.3029 0.0910 0.7387 0.0672 2 8 0.0757 0.0157 1.0787 0.0169 Time INDICES Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1 1 2 0.7387 0.0672 0.7276 0.0686 3 0.7968 0.0687 0.8295 0.0774 4 0.8595 0.0723 0.8353 0.0794 5 0.9272 0.0787 0.9193 0.0875 6 1.0001 0.0885 1.0150 0.0977 7 1.0788 0.1020 1.0945 0.1084 8 1.1637 0.1195 1.1776 0.1230 TIME TOTALS Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 513 43 511 43 2 379 23 372 25 3 409 20 424 24 4 441 18 427 24 5 476 17 470 25 6 513 19 519 27 7 553 25 559 30 8 597 34 602 36 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL: Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0442 0.0134 1.0452 0.0140 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED+(recommended): Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0463 0.0135 1.0474 0.0141