TRIM 3.61 : TRend analysis and Indices for Monitoring data STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Date/Time: 22-8-2016 14:38:50 Title : skylark-1e The following 5 variables have been read from file: Z:\Users\patrick\Work\CBS\TRIM\wine\skylark.dat 1. Site number of values: 55 2. Time number of values: 8 3. Count missing = 999 4. HABITAT number of values: 2 5. COV2 number of values: 4 Number of sites without positive counts (removed) 0 Number of observed zero counts 0 Number of observed positive counts 202 Total number of observed counts 202 Number of missing counts 238 Total number of counts 440 Total count 2536.0 Sites containing more than 10% of the total count Site Number Observed Total % 3 431.0 17.0 37 266.0 10.5 40 624.0 24.6 Time Point Averages TimePoint Observations Average Index 1 25 8.52 1.00 2 20 8.10 0.95 3 30 10.90 1.28 4 30 11.27 1.32 5 28 12.75 1.50 6 29 14.66 1.72 7 22 17.00 2.00 8 18 18.89 2.22 RESULTS FOR MODEL: Linear Trend -------------------------------- Changes in Slope at Timepoints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ESTIMATION METHOD = Generalised Estimating Equations Total time used: 3.44 seconds Estimated Overdispersion = 1.367 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.302 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 191.40, df 140, p 0.0026 Likelihood Ratio 194.80, df 140, p 0.0015 AIC (up to a constant) -85.20 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF CHANGES IN SLOPE Changepoint Wald-Test df p 1 9.22 1 0.0024 2 6.85 1 0.0089 3 1.44 1 0.2298 4 1.03 1 0.3107 5 0.00 1 0.9735 6 0.04 1 0.8358 7 0.03 1 0.8519 PARAMETER ESTIMATES Slope for Time Intervals from upto Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 1 2 -0.3202 0.1055 0.7260 0.0766 2 3 0.1515 0.1033 1.1636 0.1202 3 4 -0.0210 0.0773 0.9792 0.0757 4 5 0.1072 0.0754 1.1132 0.0840 5 6 0.1032 0.0721 1.1087 0.0799 6 7 0.0789 0.0721 1.0821 0.0780 7 8 0.0561 0.0770 1.0577 0.0815 Time INDICES Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1 1 2 0.7260 0.0766 0.7201 0.0766 3 0.8448 0.0891 0.8454 0.0893 4 0.8272 0.0896 0.8314 0.0901 5 0.9209 0.0986 0.9221 0.0989 6 1.0210 0.1081 1.0250 0.1086 7 1.1048 0.1196 1.1082 0.1201 8 1.1686 0.1295 1.1828 0.1308 TIME TOTALS Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 509 45 509 45 2 370 35 366 35 3 430 29 430 29 4 421 28 423 28 5 469 31 469 31 6 520 32 521 32 7 563 37 564 37 8 595 42 601 42 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL: Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0460 0.0142 1.0471 0.0149 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED+(recommended): Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0478 0.0142 1.0489 0.0149