TRIM 3.61 : TRend analysis and Indices for Monitoring data STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Date/Time: 4-7-2016 15:07:34 Title : skylark-1c Comment: Example 1; both overdispersion and serialcorrelation The following 5 variables have been read from file: F:\TRIM\TRIM_manual_demo\skylark.dat 1. Site number of values: 55 2. Time number of values: 8 3. Count missing = 999 4. HABITAT number of values: 2 5. COV2 number of values: 4 Number of sites without positive counts (removed) 0 Number of observed zero counts 0 Number of observed positive counts 202 Total number of observed counts 202 Number of missing counts 238 Total number of counts 440 Total count 2536.0 Sites containing more than 10% of the total count Site Number Observed Total % 3 431.0 17.0 37 266.0 10.5 40 624.0 24.6 Time Point Averages TimePoint Observations Average Index 1 25 8.52 1.00 2 20 8.10 0.95 3 30 10.90 1.28 4 30 11.27 1.32 5 28 12.75 1.50 6 29 14.66 1.72 7 22 17.00 2.00 8 18 18.89 2.22 RESULTS FOR MODEL: Effects for Each Time Point ---------------------------------------------- ESTIMATION METHOD = Generalised Estimating Equations Total time used: 2.84 seconds Estimated Overdispersion = 1.367 Estimated Serial Correlation = 0.302 GOODNESS OF FIT Chi-square 191.40, df 140, p 0.0026 Likelihood Ratio 194.80, df 140, p 0.0015 AIC (up to a constant) -85.20 WALD-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF DEVIATIONS FROM LINEAR TREND Wald-Test 16.22, df 6, p 0.0126 PARAMETER ESTIMATES Parameters for Each Time Point Time Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 1 0 1 2 -0.3202 0.1055 0.7260 0.0766 3 -0.1687 0.1054 0.8448 0.0891 4 -0.1897 0.1083 0.8272 0.0896 5 -0.0824 0.1070 0.9209 0.0986 6 0.0208 0.1059 1.0210 0.1081 7 0.0997 0.1082 1.1048 0.1196 8 0.1558 0.1108 1.1686 0.1295 Linear Trend + Deviations for Each Time Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. Slope 0.0460 0.0142 1.0471 0.0149 Time Deviations 1 0.2217 0.0582 1.2481 0.0727 2 -0.1446 0.0660 0.8654 0.0571 3 -0.0391 0.0575 0.9617 0.0553 4 -0.1061 0.0588 0.8994 0.0529 5 -0.0448 0.0546 0.9561 0.0522 6 0.0124 0.0488 1.0124 0.0495 7 0.0452 0.0452 1.0463 0.0473 8 0.0553 0.0495 1.0569 0.0523 Time INDICES Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 1 1 2 0.7260 0.0766 0.7201 0.0766 3 0.8448 0.0891 0.8454 0.0893 4 0.8272 0.0896 0.8314 0.0901 5 0.9209 0.0986 0.9221 0.0989 6 1.0210 0.1081 1.0251 0.1086 7 1.1048 0.1196 1.1082 0.1201 8 1.1686 0.1295 1.1828 0.1308 TIME TOTALS Time Model std.err. Imputed std.err. 1 509 45 509 45 2 370 35 366 35 3 430 29 430 29 4 421 28 423 28 5 469 31 469 31 6 520 32 521 32 7 563 37 564 37 8 595 42 601 42 OVERALL SLOPE MODEL: Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0460 0.0142 1.0471 0.0149 OVERALL SLOPE IMPUTED+(recommended): Moderate increase (p<0.01) ** Additive std.err. Multiplicative std.err. 0.0478 0.0142 1.0489 0.0149