Package check result: ERROR Check: examples, Result: ERROR Running examples in ‘mvgam-Ex.R’ failed The error most likely occurred in: > base::assign(".ptime", proc.time(), pos = "CheckExEnv") > ### Name: evaluate_mvgams > ### Title: Evaluate forecasts from fitted 'mvgam' objects > ### Aliases: evaluate_mvgams eval_mvgam roll_eval_mvgam compare_mvgams > > ### ** Examples > > ## No test: > # Simulate from a Poisson-AR2 model with a seasonal smooth > set.seed(1) > dat <- sim_mvgam( + T = 75, + n_series = 1, + prop_trend = 0.75, + trend_model = AR(p = 2), + family = poisson() + ) > > # Fit an appropriate model > mod_ar2 <- mvgam( + formula = y ~ s(season, bs = 'cc'), + trend_model = AR(p = 2), + family = poisson(), + data = dat$data_train, + newdata = dat$data_test, + chains = 2, + silent = 2 + ) Warning in mvgam(formula = y ~ s(season, bs = "cc"), trend_model = AR(p = 2), : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Chain 1: Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 0.00021 seconds Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 2.1 seconds. Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 1: Chain 1: Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Chain 2: Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 0.000278 seconds Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 2.78 seconds. Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 2: Chain 2: Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.952 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 2: 0.58 seconds (Sampling) Chain 2: 1.532 seconds (Total) Chain 2: Chain 1: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 1.005 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 1: 0.92 seconds (Sampling) Chain 1: 1.925 seconds (Total) Chain 1: Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them. Warning: There were 1 chains where the estimated Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information was low. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bfmi-low Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess > > # Fit a less appropriate model > mod_rw <- mvgam( + formula = y ~ 1, + trend_model = RW(), + family = poisson(), + data = dat$data_train, + newdata = dat$data_test, + chains = 2, + silent = 2 + ) Warning in mvgam(formula = y ~ 1, trend_model = RW(), family = poisson(), : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Chain 1: Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 0.000138 seconds Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 1.38 seconds. Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 1: Chain 1: Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Chain 2: Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 0.00011 seconds Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 1.1 seconds. Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 2: Chain 2: Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.26 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 1: 0.251 seconds (Sampling) Chain 1: 0.511 seconds (Total) Chain 1: Chain 2: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.27 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 2: 0.263 seconds (Sampling) Chain 2: 0.533 seconds (Total) Chain 2: Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess > > # Compare Discrete Ranked Probability Scores for the testing period > fc_ar2 <- forecast(mod_ar2) > fc_rw <- forecast(mod_rw) > score_ar2 <- score( + object = fc_ar2, + score = 'drps' + ) > score_rw <- score( + object = fc_rw, + score = 'drps' + ) > sum(score_ar2$series_1$score) [1] 22.40044 > sum(score_rw$series_1$score) [1] 43.85107 > > # Use rolling evaluation for approximate comparisons of 3-step ahead > # forecasts across the training period > compare_mvgams( + model1 = mod_ar2, + model2 = mod_rw, + fc_horizon = 3, + n_samples = 1000, + n_evaluations = 5 + ) RPS summaries per model (lower is better) Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. Model 1 0.903059 1.519493 2.135927 2.429122 3.192153 4.248379 Model 2 1.724326 2.073389 2.422452 2.502360 2.891377 3.360301 90% interval coverages per model (closer to 0.9 is better) Model 1 0.9333333 Model 2 1> > # Now use approximate leave-future-out CV to compare > # rolling forecasts; start at time point 40 to reduce > # computational time and to ensure enough data is available > # for estimating model parameters > lfo_ar2 <- lfo_cv( + object = mod_ar2, + min_t = 40, + fc_horizon = 3, + silent = 2 + ) Warning in mvgam(formula = formula, trend_formula = trend_formula, trend_map = trend_map, : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Chain 1: Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 0.000175 seconds Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 1.75 seconds. Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 1: Chain 1: Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Chain 2: Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 0.000254 seconds Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 2.54 seconds. Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 2: Chain 2: Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Chain 1Chain : 2 Elapsed Time: 0.449 seconds (Warm-up): Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling)Chain 1: 0.367 seconds (Sampling) Chain 1: 0.816 seconds (Total) Chain 1: Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.453 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 2: 0.366 seconds (Sampling) Chain 2: 0.819 seconds (Total) Chain 2: Warning: There were 14 divergent transitions after warmup. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them. Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess Warning in mvgam(formula = formula, trend_formula = trend_formula, trend_map = trend_map, : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Chain 1: Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 0.000238 seconds Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 2.38 seconds. Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 1: Chain 1: Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Chain 2: Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 0.000276 seconds Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 2.76 seconds. Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 2: Chain 2: Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.437 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 1: 0.375 seconds (Sampling) Chain 1: 0.812 seconds (Total) Chain 1: Chain 2: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.459 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 2: 0.375 seconds (Sampling) Chain 2: 0.834 seconds (Total) Chain 2: Warning: There were 2 chains where the estimated Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information was low. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bfmi-low Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess > lfo_rw <- lfo_cv( + object = mod_rw, + min_t = 40, + fc_horizon = 3, + silent = 2 + ) Warning in mvgam(formula = formula, trend_formula = trend_formula, trend_map = trend_map, : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Chain 1: Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6.5e-05 seconds Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.65 seconds. Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 1: Chain 1: Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Chain 1: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 0.000102 seconds Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 1.02 seconds. Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 2: Chain 2: Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.197 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 1: 0.168 seconds (Sampling) Chain 1: 0.365 seconds (Total) Chain 1: Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Exception: poisson_log_rng: Log rate parameter[51] is 22.6277, but must be less than 20.794415 (in 'anon_model', line 57, column 0 to column 45) Chain 2: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.232 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 2: 0.211 seconds (Sampling) Chain 2: 0.443 seconds (Total) Chain 2: Warning in validityMethod(object) : The following variables have undefined values: eta[1],The following variables have undefined values: eta[2],The following variables have undefined values: eta[3],The following variables have undefined values: eta[4],The following variables have undefined values: eta[5],The following variables have undefined values: eta[6],The following variables have undefined values: eta[7],The following variables have undefined values: eta[8],The following variables have undefined values: eta[9],The following variables have undefined values: eta[10],The following variables have undefined values: eta[11],The following variables have undefined values: eta[12],The following variables have undefined values: eta[13],The following variables have undefined values: eta[14],The following variables have undefined values: eta[15],The following variables have undefined values: eta[16],The following variables have undefined values: eta[17],The following variables have undefined values: eta[18],T [... truncated] Warning in validityMethod(object) : The following variables have undefined values: eta[1],The following variables have undefined values: eta[2],The following variables have undefined values: eta[3],The following variables have undefined values: eta[4],The following variables have undefined values: eta[5],The following variables have undefined values: eta[6],The following variables have undefined values: eta[7],The following variables have undefined values: eta[8],The following variables have undefined values: eta[9],The following variables have undefined values: eta[10],The following variables have undefined values: eta[11],The following variables have undefined values: eta[12],The following variables have undefined values: eta[13],The following variables have undefined values: eta[14],The following variables have undefined values: eta[15],The following variables have undefined values: eta[16],The following variables have undefined values: eta[17],The following variables have undefined values: eta[18],T [... truncated] Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess Warning in lw + sum_rows(loglik_past[, fc_indices]) : longer object length is not a multiple of shorter object length Warning in mvgam(formula = formula, trend_formula = trend_formula, trend_map = trend_map, : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 1). Chain 1: Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-05 seconds Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.8 seconds. Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 1: Chain 1: Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'anon_model' NOW (CHAIN 2). Chain 2: Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 0.00013 seconds Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 1.3 seconds. Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly! Chain 2: Chain 2: Chain 2: Iteration: 1 / 1000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 100 / 1000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 200 / 1000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 300 / 1000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Chain 1: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 400 / 1000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 500 / 1000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Chain 2: Iteration: 501 / 1000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 600 / 1000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 1: Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.161 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 1: 0.194 seconds (Sampling) Chain 1: 0.355 seconds (Total) Chain 1: Chain 2: Iteration: 700 / 1000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 800 / 1000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 900 / 1000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Iteration: 1000 / 1000 [100%] (Sampling) Chain 2: Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.174 seconds (Warm-up) Chain 2: 0.203 seconds (Sampling) Chain 2: 0.377 seconds (Total) Chain 2: Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. Running the chains for more iterations may help. See https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess Warning in mvgam(formula = formula, trend_formula = trend_formula, trend_map = trend_map, : cmdstanr library not found. Defaulting to rstan specified C++17 make cmd is make -f '/home/hornik/tmp/R/etc/Makeconf' -f '/home/hornik/tmp/R/share/make/shlib.mk' -f '/home/hornik/.R/Makevars-gcc' CXX='$(CXX17) $(CXX17STD)' CXXFLAGS='$(CXX17FLAGS)' CXXPICFLAGS='$(CXX17PICFLAGS)' SHLIB_LDFLAGS='$(SHLIB_CXX17LDFLAGS)' SHLIB_LD='$(SHLIB_CXX17LD)' SHLIB='file2f52cc59707e0d.so' OBJECTS='file2f52cc59707e0d.o' make would use g++-15 -std=gnu++17 -I"/home/hornik/tmp/R/include" -DNDEBUG -I"/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/Rcpp/include/" -I"/home/hornik/tmp/scratch/RtmpW8yEqk/RLIBS_2f4bf12909926a/RcppEigen/include/" -I"/home/hornik/tmp/scratch/RtmpW8yEqk/RLIBS_2f4bf12909926a/RcppEigen/include/unsupported" -I"/home/hornik/tmp/scratch/RtmpW8yEqk/RLIBS_2f4bf12909926a/BH/include" -I"/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/StanHeaders/include/src/" -I"/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/StanHeaders/include/" -I"/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/RcppParallel/include/" -I"/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/rstan/include" -DEIGEN_NO_DEBUG -DBOOST_DISABLE_ASSERTS -DBOOST_PENDING_INTEGER_LOG2_HPP -DSTAN_THREADS -DUSE_STANC3 -DSTRICT_R_HEADERS -DBOOST_PHOENIX_NO_VARIADIC_EXPRESSION -D_HAS_AUTO_PTR_ETC=0 -include '/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/StanHeaders/include/stan/math/prim/fun/Eigen.hpp' -D_REENTRANT -DRCPP_PARALLEL_USE_TBB=1 -I/usr/local/include -DUSE_TYPE_CHECKING_STRICT -D_FORTIFY_SOURCE=3 -fpic -g -O2 -Wall -pedantic -mtune=native -c file2f52cc59707e0d.cpp -o file2f52cc59707e0d.o if test "zfile2f52cc59707e0d.o" != "z"; then \ echo g++-15 -std=gnu++17 -shared -L"/home/hornik/tmp/R/lib" -Wl,-O1 -o file2f52cc59707e0d.so file2f52cc59707e0d.o '/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/rstan/lib//libStanServices.a' -L'/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/StanHeaders/lib/' -lStanHeaders -L'/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/RcppParallel/lib/' -ltbb -L"/home/hornik/tmp/R/lib" -lR; \ g++-15 -std=gnu++17 -shared -L"/home/hornik/tmp/R/lib" -Wl,-O1 -o file2f52cc59707e0d.so file2f52cc59707e0d.o '/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/rstan/lib//libStanServices.a' -L'/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/StanHeaders/lib/' -lStanHeaders -L'/home/hornik/lib/R/Library/4.6/x86_64-linux-gnu/RcppParallel/lib/' -ltbb -L"/home/hornik/tmp/R/lib" -lR; \ fi Error in sink(type = "output") : invalid connection