library(hubUtils) library(matrixStats) library(dplyr) # set up simple data for test cases model_outputs <- expand.grid(stringsAsFactors = FALSE, model_id = letters[1:4], location = c("222", "888"), horizon = 1, #week target = "inc death", target_date = as.Date("2021-12-25"), output_type = "quantile", output_type_id = c(.1, .5, .9), value = NA_real_) v2_1 <- model_outputs$value[model_outputs$location == "222" & model_outputs$output_type_id == .1] <- c(10, 30, 15, 20) v2_5 <- model_outputs$value[model_outputs$location == "222" & model_outputs$output_type_id == .5] <- c(40, 40, 45, 50) v2_9 <- model_outputs$value[model_outputs$location == "222" & model_outputs$output_type_id == .9] <- c(60, 70, 75, 80) v8_1 <- model_outputs$value[model_outputs$location == "888" & model_outputs$output_type_id == .1] <- c(100, 300, 400, 250) v8_5 <- model_outputs$value[model_outputs$location == "888" & model_outputs$output_type_id == .5] <- c(150, 325, 500, 300) v8_9 <- model_outputs$value[model_outputs$location == "888" & model_outputs$output_type_id == .9] <- c(250, 350, 500, 350) fweight2 <- data.frame(model_id = letters[1:4], location = "222", weight = 0.1 * (1:4)) fweight8 <- data.frame(model_id = letters[1:4], location = "888", weight = 0.1 * (4:1)) fweight <- bind_rows(fweight2, fweight8) test_that("non-default columns are dropped from output", { output_names <- model_outputs |> dplyr::mutate(extra_col_1 = "a", extra_col_2 = "a") |> simple_ensemble( task_id_cols = c("target_date", "target", "horizon", "location") ) |> names() expect_equal(sort(names(model_outputs)), sort(output_names)) }) test_that("invalid method argument throws error", { expect_error( simple_ensemble(model_outputs, agg_fun = "linear pool") ) }) test_that("component model outputs and resulting ensemble model outputs have identical sorted unique output type ids", { quantile_outputs <- expand.grid(stringsAsFactors = FALSE, model_id = letters[1:4], location = c("222", "888"), horizon = 1, #week target = "inc death", target_date = as.Date("2021-12-25"), output_type = "quantile", output_type_id = c(.1, .5, .9), value = NA_real_) quantile_outputs$value[quantile_outputs$location == "222" & quantile_outputs$output_type_id == .1] <- c(10, 30, 15, 20) quantile_outputs$value[quantile_outputs$location == "222" & quantile_outputs$output_type_id == .5] <- c(40, 40, 45, 50) quantile_outputs$value[quantile_outputs$location == "222" & quantile_outputs$output_type_id == .9] <- c(60, 70, 75, 80) quantile_outputs$value[quantile_outputs$location == "888" & quantile_outputs$output_type_id == .1] <- c(100, 300, 400, 250) quantile_outputs$value[quantile_outputs$location == "888" & quantile_outputs$output_type_id == .5] <- c(150, 325, 500, 300) quantile_outputs$value[quantile_outputs$location == "888" & quantile_outputs$output_type_id == .9] <- c(250, 350, 500, 350) expected_output_type_ids <- sort(unique(quantile_outputs$output_type_id)) actual_output_type_ids <- quantile_outputs |> simple_ensemble(weights = NULL, weights_col_name = NULL, model_id = "hub-ensemble", task_id_cols = NULL) |> dplyr::pull("output_type_id") |> unique() |> sort() expect_equal(expected_output_type_ids, actual_output_type_ids) }) test_that("group_by(output_type_id) produces expected results", { explicit_outputs <- expand.grid(stringsAsFactors = FALSE, model_id = letters[1:4], location = c("222", "888"), horizon = 1, #week target = "inc death", target_date = as.Date("2021-12-25"), output_type = "quantile", output_type_id = c(.025, .1, .25, .75, .9, .975), value = NA_real_) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "222" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .025] <- c(4, 12, 6, 8) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "222" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .100] <- c(10, 30, 15, 20) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "222" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .250] <- c(20, 40, 25, 30) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "222" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .750] <- c(50, 50, 55, 60) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "222" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .900] <- c(60, 70, 75, 80) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "222" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .975] <- c(70, 80, 85, 90) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "888" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .025] <- c(40, 120, 160, 100) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "888" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .100] <- c(100, 300, 400, 250) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "888" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .250] <- c(150, 325, 475, 300) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "888" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .750] <- c(200, 325, 500, 325) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "888" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .900] <- c(250, 350, 500, 350) explicit_outputs$value[explicit_outputs$location == "888" & explicit_outputs$output_type_id == .975] <- c(350, 450, 550, 450) intervals <- c(.50, .80, .95) implicit_outputs <- explicit_outputs implicit_outputs$output_type_id <- sort(rep(c((1 - intervals) / 2, 1 - (1 - intervals) / 2), 8)) explicit_ensemble <- simple_ensemble(explicit_outputs, weights = NULL, weights_col_name = NULL, model_id = "hub-ensemble", task_id_cols = NULL) implicit_ensemble <- simple_ensemble(implicit_outputs, weights = NULL, weights_col_name = NULL, model_id = "hub-ensemble", task_id_cols = NULL) expect_equal(explicit_ensemble, implicit_ensemble) }) test_that("(weighted) medians and means correctly calculated", { median_expected <- mean_expected <- weighted_median_expected <- weighted_mean_expected <- data.frame(model_id = "hub-ensemble", location = rep(c("222", "888"), each = 3), horizon = 1, target = "inc death", target_date = as.Date("2021-12-25"), output_type = "quantile", output_type_id = rep(c(.1, .5, .9), 2), value = NA_real_) median_vals <- sapply(list(v2_1, v2_5, v2_9, v8_1, v8_5, v8_9), median) mean_vals <- sapply(list(v2_1, v2_5, v2_9, v8_1, v8_5, v8_9), mean) weighted_median_vals <- c(sapply(list(v2_1, v2_5, v2_9), matrixStats::weightedMedian, w = fweight2$weight, interpolate = FALSE), sapply(list(v8_1, v8_5, v8_9), matrixStats::weightedMedian, w = fweight8$weight, interpolate = FALSE)) weighted_mean_vals <- c(sapply(list(v2_1, v2_5, v2_9), matrixStats::weightedMean, w = fweight2$weight), sapply(list(v8_1, v8_5, v8_9), matrixStats::weightedMean, w = fweight8$weight)) median_expected$value <- median_vals mean_expected$value <- mean_vals weighted_mean_expected$value <- weighted_mean_vals weighted_median_expected$value <- weighted_median_vals median_actual <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = NULL, agg_fun = "median") mean_actual <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = NULL, agg_fun = "mean") weighted_median_actual <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = fweight, agg_fun = "median") weighted_mean_actual <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = fweight, agg_fun = "mean") expect_equal(as.data.frame(median_actual), median_expected) expect_equal(as.data.frame(mean_actual), mean_expected) expect_equal(as.data.frame(weighted_median_actual), weighted_median_expected) expect_equal(as.data.frame(weighted_mean_actual), weighted_mean_expected) }) test_that("(weighted) medians and means work with alternate name for weights columns", { weighted_median_actual <- model_outputs |> simple_ensemble(weights = fweight |> dplyr::rename(w = "weight"), weights_col_name = "w", agg_fun = "median") weighted_mean_actual <- model_outputs |> simple_ensemble(weights = fweight |> dplyr::rename(w = "weight"), weights_col_name = "w", agg_fun = "mean") weighted_median_expected <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = fweight, agg_fun = "median") weighted_mean_expected <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = fweight, agg_fun = "mean") expect_equal(weighted_mean_actual, weighted_mean_expected) expect_equal(weighted_median_actual, weighted_median_expected) }) test_that("passing agg_fun as symbol or character results in identical behaviour", { weighted_mean_actual_char <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = fweight, agg_fun = "mean") weighted_mean_actual_symbol <- simple_ensemble(model_out_tbl = model_outputs, weights = fweight, agg_fun = mean) expect_identical(weighted_mean_actual_char, weighted_mean_actual_symbol) }) test_that("duplicate forecast values still result in correct weighted median", { toy_outputs <- data.frame( model_id = letters[1:6], output_type = rep("quantile", 6), output_type_id = rep(0.5, 6), value = c(-0.103, -0.89, 0, 0, 0.039, 0.055) ) weights <- data.frame( model_id = letters[1:6], weight = c(0.08, 0.14, 0.22, 0.12, 0.28, 0.16) ) weighted_median_expected <- data.frame( model_id = "hub-ensemble", output_type = "quantile", output_type_id = 0.5, value = 0 ) |> hubUtils::as_model_out_tbl() weighted_median_actual <- toy_outputs |> simple_ensemble(weights, agg_fun = "median") expect_equal(weighted_median_expected, weighted_median_actual) })