test_that("flat prior cholesky", { data <- usmacro_growth[,c("GDPC1","CPIAUCSL","FEDFUNDS")] phi <- specify_prior_phi(data = data, lags = 2L, prior = "normal", normal_sds = 1e6) sigma <- specify_prior_sigma(data = data, type = "cholesky", cholesky_U_prior = "normal", cholesky_normal_sds = 1e6, cholesky_heteroscedastic = FALSE, cholesky_priorhomoscedastic = matrix(c(0.01,0.01), ncol(data), 2)) set.seed(123) mod <- bvar(data, lags = 2, prior_intercept = 1e6, prior_phi = phi, prior_sigma = sigma, draws = 10000) phi_post_mean <- apply(mod$PHI, 1:2, mean) ols <- solve(crossprod(mod$X), crossprod(mod$X,mod$Y)) expect_lt(max(abs(ols-phi_post_mean)),0.01) }) test_that("geweke test sample_phi_cholesky", { # distribution test function mydist.test <- function(x,y){ # x: iid draws # y: autocorrelated draws x.n <- length(x) y.n <- length(y) x.mean <- mean(x) y.mean <- mean(y) x.var <- var(x) y.var <- coda::spectrum0.ar(y)$spec statistic <- (x.mean - y.mean)/sqrt(x.var/x.n + y.var/y.n) pnorm(-abs(statistic)) } # settings set.seed(123) draws <- 10000 n <- 50 # observations M <- 5 # time-series K <- 10 # coefficients per equation # 'known' variance-covariance U_inv <- diag(M) U_inv[upper.tri(U_inv)] <- seq(.1, by = .1, len = (M^2-M)/2) U <- backsolve(U_inv, diag(M)) d <- rep(20, M) d_sqrt <- sqrt(d) d_sqrt_mat <- matrix(d_sqrt, n, M, byrow = TRUE) SIGMA <- crossprod(U_inv*d_sqrt) SIGMA_chol <- diag(d_sqrt)%*%U_inv #cov2cor(SIGMA) # simulate regressors X <- matrix(rnorm(n*K), n, K) # Prior: coefficients ~ (iid) N(0,1) V_prior <- matrix(1, K, M) PHI_prior <- matrix(0, K, M) # independent draws PHI_ind <- array(rnorm(K*M*draws,as.vector(PHI_prior), as.vector(sqrt(V_prior))),c(K,M,draws)) # MCMC draws # initialize with draw from prior PHI_draws <- array(as.numeric(NA), c( K, M, draws)) PHI <- matrix(rnorm(K*M, 0, sqrt(as.vector(V_prior))), K, M) # alternately draw from observables|unobservables and unobservables|oberservables for(r in seq.int(draws)){ # simulate observables|unobservables Y <- X%*%PHI + matrix(rnorm(n*M), n, M, byrow = TRUE)%*%SIGMA_chol # simulate unobservables|oberservables PHI_draws[,,r] <- PHI <- bayesianVARs:::sample_PHI_cholesky(PHI, PHI_prior, Y, X, U, d_sqrt_mat, V_prior) } # compare distribution of quadratic length in terms of euclidean distance of iid and autocorrelated draws test1 <- mydist.test(apply(PHI_ind, 3, function(x) (sum(x^2))),apply(PHI_draws, 3, function(x) (sum(x^2)))) #qqplot(apply(PHI_ind, 3, function(x) (sum(x^2))), apply(PHI_draws, 3, function(x) (sum(x^2))));abline(0,1) test2 <- ks.test(apply(PHI_draws, 3, function(x) (sum(x^2))), "pchisq", df=K*M)$p.value #qqplot(qchisq(ppoints(draws), df = K*M), apply(PHI_draws[,,], 3, function(x) (sum(x^2))), #main = expression("Q-Q plot for" ~~ {chi^2}[nu == K*M]));abline(0,1) expect_gt(test1, 0.01) expect_gt(test2, 0.01) }) test_that("miss-specified input", { data <- usmacro_growth[,c("GDPC1","CPIAUCSL","FEDFUNDS")] phi <- specify_prior_phi(data = data, lags = 4L) expect_error(bvar(data, lags = 1L, prior_phi = phi)) }) test_that("flat prior factor", { data <- usmacro_growth[,c("GDPC1","CPIAUCSL","FEDFUNDS")] phi <- specify_prior_phi(data = data, lags = 2L, prior = "normal", normal_sds = 1e6) sigma <- specify_prior_sigma(data = data, type = "factor", factor_factors = 2, factor_priorfacloadtype = "normal", factor_priorfacload = 1e6, factor_heteroskedastic = c(FALSE, FALSE), factor_priorhomoskedastic = matrix(c(1e-6,1e-6), ncol(data), 2)) set.seed(123) mod <- bvar(data, lags = 2, prior_intercept = 1e6, prior_phi = phi, prior_sigma = sigma, draws = 10000) phi_post_mean <- apply(mod$PHI, 1:2, mean) ols <- solve(crossprod(mod$X), crossprod(mod$X,mod$Y)) expect_lt(max(abs(ols-phi_post_mean)),0.01) }) test_that("flat prior cholesky", { data <- usmacro_growth[,c("GDPC1","CPIAUCSL","FEDFUNDS")] phi <- specify_prior_phi(data = data, lags = 2L, prior = "normal", normal_sds = 1e6) sigma <- specify_prior_sigma(data = data, type = "cholesky", cholesky_U_prior = "normal", cholesky_normal_sds = 1e6, cholesky_heteroscedastic = FALSE, cholesky_priorhomoscedastic = matrix(c(1e-6,1e-6), ncol(data), 2)) set.seed(123) mod <- bvar(data, lags = 2, prior_intercept = 1e6, prior_phi = phi, prior_sigma = sigma, draws = 10000) phi_post_mean <- apply(mod$PHI, 1:2, mean) ols <- solve(crossprod(mod$X), crossprod(mod$X,mod$Y)) expect_lt(max(abs(ols-phi_post_mean)),0.01) }) test_that("homoscedastic factor VAR input", { data <- usmacro_growth[,c("GDPC1","CPIAUCSL","FEDFUNDS")] phi <- specify_prior_phi(data = data, lags = 2L, prior = "normal", normal_sds = 1e6) sigma <- specify_prior_sigma(data = data, type = "factor", factor_factors = 2, factor_priorfacloadtype = "normal", factor_priorfacload = 1e6, factor_heteroskedastic = c(FALSE, FALSE), factor_priorhomoskedastic = matrix(c(1e-6,1e-6), ncol(data), 2)) mod <- bvar(data, lags = 2, prior_intercept = 1e6, prior_phi = phi, prior_sigma = sigma, draws = 10, burnin = 10) expect_true(all(mod$logvar[,-seq_len(ncol(mod$Y)),]==0)) })